KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

48%

39%

37%

27%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

WN2NO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.50u · WN2 −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:34+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	51.5%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	51.5%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	51.5%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	51.5%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	51.5%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	60.6%	33.6%	50.8%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	60.6%	37.7%	50.8%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	60.6%	37.7%	50.8%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	60.6%	37.7%	50.8%	37.0%	9.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	60.5%	37.7%	50.8%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:30+00:00	60.5%	37.7%	50.8%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	60.5%	39.2%	50.8%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	60.5%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	60.5%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	60.5%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	60.5%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	9.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	40.5%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	38.8%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	47.9%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	47.9%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	47.9%	39.2%	26.6%	37.0%	70.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.4956
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	48%	73.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.2294
IFS Ensemble	39%	72.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1537
IFS HRES	37%	71.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1369
WeatherNext 2	27%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0708

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗