KSTL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

48%

39%

37%

27%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

WN2NO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.50u · WN2 −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	21.2%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.2%	63.9%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	55.6%	56.3%	0.6%	—	23.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	41.3%	52.2%	27.9%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	6.5%	1.3%	20.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	8.1%	29.5%	3.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	9.3%	33.8%	1.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	2.2%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	3.6%	40.5%	2.3%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	10.8%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	4.3%	32.2%	2.6%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	4.2%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.4%	24.0%	4.4%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	1.2%	17.0%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	1.4%	22.7%	2.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	3.3%	25.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.9%	29.2%	1.5%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	1.1%	24.0%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.5%	32.0%	0.6%	2.2%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.5%	29.3%	0.7%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	3.5%	30.9%	1.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.2%	31.4%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.7%	33.1%	0.4%	1.4%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	4.0%	22.1%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	8.3%	23.4%	0.8%	5.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.0%	20.2%	0.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.8%	26.3%	0.4%	4.4%	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.5%	26.7%	0.6%	—	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.4956
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	48%	73.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.2294
IFS Ensemble	39%	72.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1537
IFS HRES	37%	71.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1369
WeatherNext 2	27%	70.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0708

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗