KSTL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 5.1¢Risks 1.26u

EPSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.74u · EPS −23.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:45+00:00	42.2%	12.5%	17.5%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	42.2%	12.5%	17.5%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	42.2%	12.5%	17.5%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	42.2%	12.5%	17.5%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	42.2%	6.4%	14.8%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	42.2%	6.4%	14.8%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	42.2%	6.4%	14.8%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	42.2%	6.4%	14.8%	35.3%	3.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	38.8%	6.4%	14.8%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.8%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.8%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.8%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	38.8%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	3.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	34.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	34.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	34.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	14.4%	35.3%	34.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	14.4%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	18.3%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	18.3%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	40.2%	6.7%	18.3%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	29.7%	6.7%	18.3%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	29.7%	6.7%	18.3%	25.9%	34.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:24+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	11.1%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	11.1%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	11.1%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	7.2%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	7.2%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	26.4%	0.7%	7.2%	9.6%	31.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	7.2%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	7.2%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	7.2%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	7.2%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	7.2%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	13.7%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:18+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.4%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.7%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.7%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	14.9%	0.7%	5.7%	3.0%	14.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	5.7%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	5.7%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	5.7%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	5.7%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	5.7%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	14.8%	0.7%	4.2%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	14.8%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:27+00:00	14.8%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	4.2%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	6.0%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	6.0%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	6.0%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	21.6%	0.2%	6.0%	3.2%	6.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	6.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	6.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	6.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	6.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	12.6%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	12.5%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	4.0%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	10.6%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	9.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	3.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	3.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	3.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	3.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	9.9%	0.2%	3.4%	4.2%	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	11%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	74.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	70.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	71.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗