KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

58%

45%

37%

15%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.2¢Risks 44.25u

ICONNO 55.8¢Risks 55.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.75u · ICON −55.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	52.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	52.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	52.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	43.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	43.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	43.6%	36.6%	21.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	43.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	43.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	43.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	43.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	43.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	62.6%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	46.1%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	70.7%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	73.8%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	73.8%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	73.8%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	73.8%	31.5%	68.6%	29.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	73.8%	36.7%	58.2%	44.6%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	75.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	74.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.2°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗