KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

28%

20%

16%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

ICONNO 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.40u · ICON −76.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:57+00:00	55.6%	14.3%	44.2%	22.3%	36.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	55.6%	14.3%	41.3%	22.3%	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:37+00:00	55.6%	14.3%	41.3%	22.3%	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	55.6%	14.3%	41.3%	22.3%	36.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:38+00:00	50.9%	14.3%	41.3%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	50.9%	14.3%	41.3%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	50.9%	14.3%	41.3%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	50.9%	14.3%	41.3%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	50.9%	14.3%	41.3%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	50.9%	18.3%	33.4%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	50.9%	18.3%	33.4%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	50.9%	18.3%	33.4%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	33.4%	14.9%	7.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	33.4%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	33.4%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	33.4%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	31.5%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	31.5%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	31.5%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	47.4%	12.5%	31.5%	14.9%	7.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:03+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:15+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	22.6%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	46.5%	12.5%	31.5%	19.5%	10.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	47.2%	12.5%	31.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	47.2%	12.5%	31.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	47.2%	12.5%	31.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	47.2%	12.5%	31.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00	47.2%	11.3%	19.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	47.2%	11.3%	19.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	47.2%	11.3%	19.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	47.2%	11.3%	19.5%	14.1%	6.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	40.7%	12.1%	19.5%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	40.7%	12.1%	19.5%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	40.7%	9.4%	19.5%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	40.7%	9.4%	19.5%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	40.7%	9.4%	20.3%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:30+00:00	40.7%	9.4%	20.3%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	40.7%	9.4%	20.3%	14.1%	7.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	20.3%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	20.3%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	20.3%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	20.3%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	20.3%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	45.3%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	21.2%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	32.8%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	32.8%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	48.1%	9.4%	32.8%	11.7%	6.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	51.0%	9.4%	32.8%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	51.0%	9.4%	32.8%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	51.0%	9.4%	32.8%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	51.0%	9.4%	32.8%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	51.0%	9.4%	32.8%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	51.0%	15.5%	28.1%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	51.0%	15.5%	28.1%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	51.0%	15.5%	28.1%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	38.4%	15.5%	28.1%	20.3%	8.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	38.3%	15.5%	28.1%	20.3%	8.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	38%	75.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	74.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	73.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	71.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗