KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

35%

30%

18%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 27.7¢Risks 27.75u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.25u · EPS −72.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	77.3%	19.3%	55.6%	43.7%	21.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	77.3%	19.3%	55.6%	43.7%	21.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	77.3%	19.3%	55.6%	43.7%	21.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	70.9%	19.3%	55.6%	43.7%	21.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	70.9%	19.3%	55.6%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:24+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	55.6%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	55.6%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	55.6%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	44.4%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	44.4%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	70.9%	20.5%	44.4%	43.7%	21.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	44.4%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	44.4%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	44.4%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	44.4%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	44.4%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:55+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	47.2%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	52.1%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	52.1%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	52.1%	20.5%	36.0%	11.5%	46.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:21+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	43.2%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	43.2%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	45.7%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:47+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	45.7%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	45.7%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	65.8%	8.8%	45.7%	17.8%	41.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	45.7%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	45.7%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	45.7%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	45.7%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	52.2%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	48.5%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	48.5%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	48.5%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	48.5%	8.8%	39.9%	21.5%	48.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	31.3%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	31.3%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	31.3%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	48.4%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	30.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	30.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	30.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	37.6%	12.0%	30.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	37.6%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	43.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	47.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:22+00:00	47.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	47.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:40+00:00	47.6%	7.9%	34.9%	17.5%	30.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	77.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	72.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗