KSTL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

39%

38%

26%

18%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

ICONNO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.00u · ICON −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	1.2%	8.2%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	12.6%	40.3%	0.1%	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	12.8%	31.0%	1.4%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	17.4%	25.8%	4.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	12.3%	19.5%	6.7%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	7.7%	21.3%	5.3%	—	6.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	0.9%	19.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.9%	21.4%	3.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	1.2%	20.9%	1.2%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	0.5%	18.4%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	1.8%	21.0%	0.8%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	1.4%	24.9%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	1.1%	21.9%	0.2%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	1.0%	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	3.8%	26.4%	0.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.6%	27.6%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.5%	21.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.3%	26.3%	0.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.1%	26.6%	0.2%	4.6%	1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	22.8%	0.3%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	81.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	77.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	76.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	75.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	69.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗