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KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
63%
WN2
57%
EPS
28%
HRES
22%
ICON
5%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.60u
VS
ICONNO 66.4¢Risks 66.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.40u · ICON −66.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.3% · 2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:56+00:0062.6%28.0%57.3%22.4%4.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:0062.6%28.0%57.3%22.4%4.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0062.6%28.0%57.3%22.4%4.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:0062.6%28.0%57.3%22.4%4.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:28+00:0062.6%28.0%57.3%22.4%4.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single63%80.3°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%79.5°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend53%79.0°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%76.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%73.7°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON5%61.7°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗