KSTL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

57%

28%

22%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.6¢Risks 33.60u

ICONNO 66.4¢Risks 66.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.40u · ICON −66.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	16.8%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	0.0%	32.4%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	33.0%	41.6%	0.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	19.4%	46.4%	5.3%	—	11.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	20.0%	44.7%	15.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	6.7%	46.0%	6.2%	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	37.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	1.9%	33.8%	4.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	1.3%	40.7%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	2.5%	39.6%	3.2%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	2.5%	48.2%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	2.6%	39.1%	0.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	6.7%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	10.7%	43.2%	2.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	7.3%	45.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	4.9%	40.8%	1.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	12.7%	44.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	13.1%	46.7%	1.1%	20.6%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	40.0%	0.0%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	80.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	79.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	73.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261022-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗