KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

49%

45%

31%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	54.0%	36.6%	62.4%	27.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	54.0%	36.6%	65.1%	27.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	54.0%	36.6%	65.1%	27.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	54.0%	36.6%	65.1%	27.9%	33.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	60.3%	36.6%	65.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	60.3%	36.6%	65.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	60.3%	36.6%	65.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	60.3%	36.6%	65.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	60.3%	36.6%	65.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	60.3%	39.3%	74.0%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	60.3%	39.3%	74.0%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	60.3%	39.3%	74.0%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	53.5%	39.3%	74.0%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	53.5%	39.3%	74.1%	33.7%	40.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00	66.1%	39.3%	65.7%	18.9%	33.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	66.1%	39.3%	65.7%	18.9%	33.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	66.1%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	33.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	66.1%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	33.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	66.1%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	33.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	75.2%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	30.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	75.2%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	30.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	75.2%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	30.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	75.2%	39.3%	79.0%	18.9%	30.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	75.2%	48.8%	76.2%	44.6%	30.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	75.2%	48.8%	76.2%	44.6%	30.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	75.2%	48.8%	76.2%	44.6%	30.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	75.2%	48.8%	76.2%	44.6%	30.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	76.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	77.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	74.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗