KSTL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

75%

49%

45%

31%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

ICONNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.50u · ICON −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	1.2%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	12.3%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.4%	75.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	34.3%	77.0%	2.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.4%	79.0%	30.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	4.1%	71.1%	5.2%	—	20.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	76.5%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	12.7%	75.8%	15.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	13.4%	78.1%	8.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	8.2%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	26.2%	77.9%	5.4%	—	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	23.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	19.0%	79.1%	7.3%	—	13.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	31.8%	82.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	25.5%	83.5%	13.1%	53.9%	25.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	79.6%	—	—	14.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	76.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	77.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	74.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	73.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗