KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

51%

32%

27%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.0¢Risks 35.05u

HRESNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.95u · HRES −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	72.8%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	72.8%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	72.8%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	62.4%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	62.4%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	42.8%	26.3%	62.4%	23.9%	44.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	49.2%	26.3%	62.4%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	49.2%	26.3%	62.4%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	49.2%	26.3%	62.4%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	49.2%	26.3%	62.4%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	49.2%	26.3%	62.4%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	49.2%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	49.2%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	49.2%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	61.5%	8.6%	32.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	77.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	32%	74.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗