KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

51%

32%

27%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.0¢Risks 35.05u

HRESNO 65.0¢Risks 64.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.95u · HRES −64.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	71.1%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	46.0%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	2.2%	54.9%	0.1%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	8.7%	72.2%	10.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	15.5%	60.6%	25.1%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	24.2%	55.6%	6.2%	—	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	12.5%	52.5%	9.3%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	14.7%	71.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	40.5%	73.1%	11.8%	26.2%	20.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	64.1%	—	—	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	78.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	77.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	32%	74.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	74.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗