KSTL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	59.0%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.0%	33.0%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	0.9%	40.9%	0.1%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	4.2%	58.7%	5.5%	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	8.1%	45.4%	14.6%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	13.6%	39.7%	2.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	5.8%	36.1%	4.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	7.0%	55.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	24.8%	57.0%	5.2%	14.1%	10.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	46.4%	—	—	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗