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KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
86%
ICON
78%
HRES
78%
EPS
59%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 73.4¢Risks 73.40u
VS
EPSNO 26.6¢Risks 26.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.60u · EPS −26.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 78.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 77.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 60.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:50+00:0078.7%35.5%78.0%39.2%60.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0078.7%35.5%78.0%39.2%60.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0078.7%35.5%84.3%39.2%60.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0078.7%35.5%84.3%39.2%60.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0078.7%35.5%84.3%39.2%60.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0086.3%35.5%84.3%39.2%77.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0086.3%35.5%84.3%39.2%77.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0086.3%35.5%84.3%39.2%77.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0086.3%35.5%84.3%39.2%77.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:0086.3%59.4%87.4%77.7%77.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0086.3%59.4%87.4%77.7%77.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0086.3%59.4%87.4%77.7%77.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0086.3%59.4%87.4%77.7%77.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%81.2°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single86%81.9°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON78%81.2°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES78%80.9°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%77.4°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend46%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗