KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

78%

78%

59%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.4¢Risks 73.40u

EPSNO 26.6¢Risks 26.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.60u · EPS −26.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	59.6%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	73.2%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	0.0%	14.3%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	36.2%	59.7%	1.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	36.4%	62.9%	19.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	37.2%	64.9%	23.9%	—	23.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	65.5%	69.8%	23.0%	40.5%	50.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	60.5%	—	—	38.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	81.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	81.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	81.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	80.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	77.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗