WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
63%
WN2
62%
HRES
53%
EPS
15%
ICON
1%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 32.0¢Risks 32.00u
VS
ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 68.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.00u · ICON −68.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 53.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:0062.9%15.4%61.5%53.1%1.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0062.9%15.4%61.5%53.1%1.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0062.9%15.4%61.5%53.1%1.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0062.9%15.4%61.5%53.1%1.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single63%80.4°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%80.1°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
National Blend55%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES53%79.0°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%73.6°F4.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON1%55.8°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗