KSTL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

62%

53%

15%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.0¢Risks 32.00u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 68.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.00u · ICON −68.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	47.6%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	61.6%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	0.0%	8.0%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	24.1%	45.8%	0.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	23.7%	48.5%	10.9%	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	23.9%	50.0%	13.8%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	50.0%	54.8%	12.7%	26.1%	35.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	24.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	63%	80.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	80.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	79.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	73.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	55.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗