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KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
84%
WN2
83%
EPS
73%
HRES
70%
ICON
64%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 74.0¢Risks 36.98u
VS
ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 13.02u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.02u · ICON −13.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 70.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:52+00:0072.9%63.9%56.2%25.7%60.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0072.9%63.9%56.2%25.7%60.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0072.9%63.9%60.1%25.7%60.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0072.9%63.9%60.1%25.7%60.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0072.9%63.9%60.1%25.7%60.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0083.7%63.9%60.1%25.7%64.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0083.7%63.9%60.1%25.7%64.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0083.7%63.9%60.1%25.7%64.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0083.7%63.9%60.1%25.7%64.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:0083.7%72.9%82.7%70.2%64.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0083.7%72.9%82.7%70.2%64.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0083.7%72.9%82.7%70.2%64.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0083.7%72.9%82.7%70.2%64.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single84%79.8°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%78.9°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble73%77.0°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES70%78.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON64%77.1°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend41%73.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗