KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

73%

70%

64%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.0¢Risks 37.00u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 13.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.00u · ICON −13.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	71.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	2.4%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	11.0%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	46.6%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	36.2%	39.6%	1.2%	—	31.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	42.7%	58.0%	23.7%	39.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	84%	79.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	78.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	77.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	73.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗