KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

47%

42%

36%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

EPSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.40u · EPS −52.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:20+00:00	61.0%	27.1%	29.8%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	61.0%	27.1%	29.8%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	61.0%	27.1%	29.8%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	61.0%	27.1%	29.8%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:18+00:00	61.0%	27.1%	29.8%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:02+00:00	61.0%	29.5%	43.0%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	61.0%	29.5%	43.0%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	61.0%	29.5%	43.0%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	44.5%	29.5%	43.0%	38.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	44.5%	29.5%	43.0%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:41+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	43.0%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	43.0%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	43.0%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	13.6%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	13.6%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:07+00:00	44.5%	29.7%	13.6%	38.4%	4.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	13.6%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	13.6%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	13.6%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	13.6%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	13.6%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	54.2%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:53+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	26.5%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	46.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	44.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	59.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	59.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	59.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	59.5%	29.7%	29.8%	10.1%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00	59.5%	35.7%	53.4%	47.0%	42.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	59.5%	35.7%	53.4%	47.0%	42.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	59.5%	35.7%	53.4%	47.0%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	59.5%	35.7%	53.4%	47.0%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	59.5%	35.7%	53.4%	47.0%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	79.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	78.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	77.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	28%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	73.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗