KSTL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

47%

42%

36%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

EPSNO 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.40u · EPS −52.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	48.8%	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	22.3%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	14.5%	16.6%	0.1%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	17.9%	29.7%	7.4%	16.1%	14.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	60%	79.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	78.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	77.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	28%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	73.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗