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KSTL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
80%
EPS
78%
WN2
70%
HRES
48%
ICON
22%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.80u
VS
ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.20u · ICON −49.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 79.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 21.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:49+00:0079.8%78.3%69.5%47.5%21.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0079.8%78.3%69.5%47.5%21.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0079.8%78.3%69.5%47.5%21.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0079.8%78.3%69.5%47.5%21.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single80%74.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%74.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%72.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%70.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES48%69.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON22%61.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗