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KSTL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
80%
EPS
78%
WN2
70%
HRES
48%
ICON
22%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.85u
VS
ICONNO 49.1¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 80.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 56.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:007.5%———2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:007.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.0%———38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0022.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0010.5%———20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0045.2%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0014.6%———24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0067.5%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0011.8%———27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:009.3%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0038.0%———28.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0076.0%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0082.1%———35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0047.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0046.8%———43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0068.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0074.8%———55.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0066.8%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0077.2%———49.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0079.6%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0061.2%———42.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0079.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0081.9%—63.8%—61.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0078.2%—80.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0077.2%———50.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0036.1%—24.8%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0065.9%—76.6%—35.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0043.0%—43.0%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0084.0%—15.6%—47.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0046.7%—16.7%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0056.1%1.8%1.0%56.1%30.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0031.4%—0.2%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single80%74.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%74.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 270%72.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%70.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES48%69.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON22%61.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗