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KSTL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
23%
EPS
22%
WN2
10%
HRES
7%
ICON
5%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 14.0¢Risks 6.98u
VS
ICONNO 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.03u · ICON −43.03u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 4.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:50+00:0023.2%21.7%10.5%7.2%4.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0023.2%21.7%10.5%7.2%4.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0023.2%21.7%10.5%7.2%4.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0023.2%21.7%10.5%7.2%4.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single23%74.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%74.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend17%70.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%72.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES7%69.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%61.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗