KSTL / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

St. Louis, MOHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

22%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.0¢Risks 6.98u

ICONNO 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.03u · ICON −43.03u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	16.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	24.4%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	5.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	0.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	0.0%	8.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	23%	74.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	74.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	17%	70.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	72.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	69.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSTL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSTL-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: St. Louis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗