KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

86%

83%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

HRESNO 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.55u · HRES −4.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	98.1%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.1%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.1%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	94.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	79.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	79.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	79.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.9%	72.1%	79.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.9%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	90.8%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:27+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.5%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.8%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.8%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	92.3%	96.5%	98.8%	78.2%	79.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	94.7%	96.5%	98.8%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	94.7%	96.5%	98.8%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	94.7%	96.5%	98.8%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	94.7%	96.5%	98.8%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	94.7%	96.5%	98.8%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	94.7%	99.1%	98.3%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	94.7%	99.1%	98.3%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	94.7%	99.1%	98.3%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	95.5%	99.1%	98.3%	82.7%	85.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	95.5%	99.1%	98.3%	82.7%	86.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	96%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0020
ICON	86%	80.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0196
IFS HRES	83%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0299
National Blend	72%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0812
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗