KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

86%

83%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 90.9¢Risks 45.45u

HRESNO 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +4.55u · HRES −4.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	68.7%	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	77.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	33.0%	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	48.0%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	75.9%	55.6%	50.7%	—	85.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	87.6%	58.0%	91.0%	—	88.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	87.5%	77.8%	76.6%	—	86.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	86.9%	94.7%	89.6%	—	86.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	36.4%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	94.7%	84.8%	89.2%	—	87.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	91.2%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	68.6%	83.3%	32.2%	—	73.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	91.5%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	60.0%	81.0%	33.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	63.9%	89.6%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	51.0%	84.7%	26.3%	—	49.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	90.8%	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	64.1%	78.8%	68.8%	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	58.4%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	94.7%	50.0%	92.7%	—	40.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	91.7%	64.3%	0.1%	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	82.5%	72.0%	82.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	89.2%	72.7%	75.6%	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	94.5%	71.3%	63.4%	55.0%	75.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	89.7%	68.7%	53.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	95.0%	79.0%	59.3%	61.9%	72.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	86.1%	77.9%	61.0%	—	75.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	81.8%	95.6%	60.1%	79.8%	84.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	90.1%	92.5%	76.4%	—	86.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	97.4%	98.4%	78.6%	86.6%	85.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	98.6%	98.7%	90.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.2°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	98%	82.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0003
AIFS Single	96%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0020
ICON	86%	80.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0196
IFS HRES	83%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0299
National Blend	72%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0812
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗