KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

93%

84%

74%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.6¢Risks 86.60u

ICONNO 13.4¢Risks 13.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.40u · ICON −13.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:49+00:00	87.1%	98.8%	92.1%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	87.1%	98.8%	92.1%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	87.1%	98.8%	92.1%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	87.1%	98.8%	92.1%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:42+00:00	87.1%	98.8%	92.1%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	87.1%	98.6%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	87.1%	98.6%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	87.1%	98.6%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	91.4%	98.6%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	91.3%	98.6%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	88.4%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	89.5%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	89.5%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:18+00:00	91.3%	98.7%	89.5%	86.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	89.5%	83.6%	74.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	89.5%	83.6%	74.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	89.5%	83.6%	74.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	89.5%	83.6%	74.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	89.5%	83.6%	74.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:11+00:00	91.6%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	93.8%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	93.8%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	93.8%	98.7%	93.0%	83.6%	74.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	86.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	94%	87.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0038
WeatherNext 2	93%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0049
IFS HRES	84%	84.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0269
ICON	74%	85.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0650
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗