KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

94%

93%

84%

74%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.6¢Risks 86.60u

ICONNO 13.4¢Risks 13.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.40u · ICON −13.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	57.2%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	66.5%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	22.1%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	34.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	63.8%	41.6%	36.9%	—	76.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	78.5%	43.4%	83.5%	—	80.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	77.8%	64.9%	63.5%	—	76.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	76.4%	88.9%	80.5%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	22.4%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	88.4%	72.8%	79.3%	—	76.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	82.2%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	51.7%	70.1%	18.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	82.2%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	41.8%	66.1%	19.0%	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	45.3%	78.3%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	32.1%	70.4%	13.1%	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	79.6%	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	43.9%	61.2%	49.0%	—	40.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	37.5%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	85.7%	29.2%	81.7%	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	79.4%	42.2%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	63.7%	50.0%	63.7%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	73.7%	50.0%	53.6%	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	83.4%	47.5%	38.9%	30.9%	52.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	73.1%	43.6%	29.1%	—	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	83.5%	55.4%	33.1%	35.6%	47.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	65.0%	52.8%	33.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	57.2%	83.7%	31.8%	54.3%	61.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	70.2%	75.2%	48.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	87.5%	91.1%	50.0%	62.4%	60.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	91.4%	92.1%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	86.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0002
AIFS Single	94%	87.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0038
WeatherNext 2	93%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0049
IFS HRES	84%	84.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0269
ICON	74%	85.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0650
National Blend	53%	79.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2247

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗