KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

80%

64%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

ICONNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.70u · ICON −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	95.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	95.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	74.4%	83.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.4%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	84.1%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	85.4%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	85.4%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	85.4%	99.1%	93.2%	84.3%	82.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:03+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	75.8%	31.6%	48.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	75.8%	31.6%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	89.2%	31.6%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	89.2%	31.6%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	78.9%	87.8%	89.2%	31.6%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:24+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	89.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	89.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	89.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	89.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	89.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	64.5%	87.8%	88.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	64.5%	69.1%	88.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	64.5%	69.1%	88.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	88.3%	69.0%	88.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	88.3%	69.0%	88.2%	36.9%	29.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	72.8%	71.5%	85.7%	43.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	72.8%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	72.8%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	72.8%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	73.9%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	73.9%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	73.9%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	73.9%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	73.9%	71.5%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	73.9%	72.8%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	73.9%	72.8%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	73.9%	72.8%	86.4%	43.8%	76.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	75.4%	72.8%	86.4%	44.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	75.4%	72.3%	86.4%	44.2%	76.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	86.4%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	86.4%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	87.2%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	87.2%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	87.2%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	82.6%	87.8%	87.2%	55.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	83.3%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	87.2%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	84.9%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	84.9%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	84.9%	63.7%	56.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	79.9%	87.8%	84.9%	63.7%	56.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	82.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	85%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	80%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	57%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1866
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗