KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

80%

64%

57%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.3¢Risks 72.30u

ICONNO 27.7¢Risks 27.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.70u · ICON −27.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	51.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	60.6%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	17.6%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	28.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	57.0%	34.9%	30.5%	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	72.8%	36.4%	78.5%	—	74.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	71.7%	57.6%	56.1%	—	69.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	69.8%	84.6%	74.5%	—	69.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	16.8%	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	83.8%	65.5%	72.8%	—	69.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	76.0%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	43.0%	62.1%	13.1%	—	49.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	75.8%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	33.0%	57.3%	13.4%	—	22.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	36.1%	70.8%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	24.0%	61.5%	8.6%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	71.8%	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	34.0%	51.0%	38.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	27.9%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	78.7%	20.6%	73.6%	—	14.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	70.4%	31.5%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	52.3%	38.5%	52.3%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	63.0%	38.1%	41.6%	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	74.4%	35.4%	27.6%	20.8%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	31.4%	19.1%	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	73.9%	42.0%	22.0%	24.0%	34.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	51.4%	39.0%	22.1%	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	42.8%	73.2%	20.2%	40.0%	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	56.0%	61.9%	33.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	77.4%	82.9%	34.6%	46.8%	45.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	83.0%	84.0%	53.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	82.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0149
WeatherNext 2	85%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0228
AIFS Single	80%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0404
IFS HRES	64%	80.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	57%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1866
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗