KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

64%

56%

32%

19%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 44.0¢Risks 44.00u

HRESNO 56.0¢Risks 56.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.00u · HRES −56.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	39.2%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	18.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	43.0%	23.0%	19.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	59.4%	23.7%	66.3%	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	57.6%	42.4%	40.9%	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	54.8%	73.2%	60.3%	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	8.5%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	71.4%	49.2%	57.5%	—	53.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	61.0%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	26.9%	44.8%	5.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	59.8%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	18.4%	39.1%	5.8%	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	20.3%	52.8%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	11.6%	42.3%	3.2%	—	10.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	53.0%	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	17.6%	31.2%	21.2%	—	15.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	13.2%	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	59.7%	8.5%	53.3%	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	48.9%	14.8%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	30.0%	19.1%	30.0%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	39.3%	18.3%	20.8%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	51.2%	15.9%	11.2%	7.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	36.1%	12.8%	6.4%	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	48.7%	19.1%	7.4%	8.4%	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	25.3%	16.4%	7.1%	—	14.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	18.2%	45.7%	5.9%	16.3%	21.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	27.2%	32.5%	12.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	48.4%	56.3%	11.7%	19.2%	18.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	56.6%	22.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	83.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0955
AIFS Single	64%	83.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1267
WeatherNext 2	56%	82.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1980
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
ICON	32%	79.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4570
IFS HRES	19%	77.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6577

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗