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KTPA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
12%
HRES
4%
ICON
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.9¢Risks 3.45u
VS
EPSNO 93.1¢Risks 46.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.55u · EPS −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0010-03 06:0010-11 00:0010-18 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:002.7%————2.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0017.5%————18.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0038.0%————24.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0034.0%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0022.8%————22.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0013.4%————16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.2%————24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%————17.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0027.9%————24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0038.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0031.0%————25.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0024.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0016.4%————17.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0031.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0042.7%————17.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.1%————14.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.5%—6.8%——17.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:005.9%—9.6%——13.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.3%—4.8%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:001.9%—0.5%——16.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:002.7%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.0%—1.2%——9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0010.1%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.3%5.6%1.6%1.1%—11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0012.1%—4.9%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:007.6%10.9%1.5%14.8%—12.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.0%—3.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:004.6%9.0%4.2%3.9%—8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.8%—5.2%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.1%6.9%16.4%9.0%—6.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:007.0%0.1%2.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0010.1%13.4%4.5%6.9%—5.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:003.1%7.5%1.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.1%0.9%2.9%0.1%—1.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.8%6.0%3.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.3%1.7%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.8%0.3%3.4%——0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%1.6%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.5%2.7%1.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.5%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%2.6%0.0%1.7%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.1%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.1%0.2%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single12%84.1°F4.6°F2026-10-14 06:000.0144
NWS forecast5%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:000.0022
IFS HRES4%81.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0020
ICON3%80.4°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0009
WeatherNext 22%82.0°F3.7°F2026-10-14 06:000.0005
National Blend2%82.0°F3.6°F2026-10-14 06:000.0004
IFS Ensemble2%83.0°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗