KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

16%

12%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.2¢Risks 31.25u

EPSNO 68.8¢Risks 68.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.75u · EPS −68.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:24+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.7%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.7%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.7%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.7%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.7%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	24.3%	7.4%	4.8%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	24.3%	18.3%	4.8%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	24.3%	18.3%	4.8%	43.6%	17.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	3.9%	18.3%	4.8%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	3.9%	18.3%	4.8%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:58+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	4.8%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	4.8%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	2.2%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	2.2%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	2.2%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	3.9%	16.7%	2.2%	43.6%	17.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	2.2%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	2.2%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	2.2%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	2.2%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	18.6%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.3%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	14.3%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	12.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	14.1%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	14.1%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	14.1%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	14.1%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	14.1%	16.7%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	14.1%	21.6%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	14.1%	21.6%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	14.1%	21.6%	4.8%	33.7%	5.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	14.7%	21.6%	4.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	14.7%	21.7%	4.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	4.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	4.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	4.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	14.7%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	5.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	16.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	16.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	16.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	1.8%	43.8%	16.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	1.8%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	15.2%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:28+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	2.7%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	4.3%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	4.3%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	12.1%	19.9%	4.3%	26.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	4.3%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	4.3%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	4.3%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	4.3%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	4.3%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	10.5%	2.1%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	10.5%	2.1%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	10.5%	2.1%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	9.6%	2.1%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	9.6%	2.1%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	4.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	6.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	6.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	6.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	9.6%	1.9%	6.1%	27.9%	18.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	6.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	10.9%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	4.1%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	5.0%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	5.0%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	5.0%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	5.0%	24.7%	13.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	11.2%	1.9%	5.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	11.2%	1.9%	5.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	11.2%	1.9%	5.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	11.2%	1.9%	5.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	11.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	11.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	11.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	11.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	12.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	12.2%	4.2%	9.0%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	12.2%	6.9%	9.0%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	12.2%	6.9%	9.0%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	12.2%	6.9%	7.9%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	12.2%	6.9%	7.9%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	12.2%	6.9%	7.9%	33.3%	44.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	7.9%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	7.9%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	7.9%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	7.9%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	7.9%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	13.8%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	13.6%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	12.1%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	12.1%	15.9%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	11.6%	6.9%	12.1%	15.9%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3091
IFS HRES	16%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0253
National Blend	13%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0174
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	12%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0135
IFS Ensemble	7%	82.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	6%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-LE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗