KTPA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

16%

12%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 31.2¢Risks 31.25u

EPSNO 68.8¢Risks 68.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +68.75u · EPS −68.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	99.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	28.9%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	60.7%	8.0%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	28.6%	19.4%	60.4%	—	19.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	19.9%	16.1%	11.7%	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	5.0%	13.4%	12.5%	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	8.4%	9.7%	39.0%	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	67.4%	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	26.5%	12.0%	69.2%	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	13.2%	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	26.2%	12.7%	63.7%	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	8.1%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	18.4%	21.6%	12.4%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	34.3%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	7.9%	33.0%	7.9%	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	20.4%	43.0%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	21.2%	34.0%	11.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	18.3%	25.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	16.9%	38.2%	40.3%	98.7%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	14.1%	12.9%	100.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	11.0%	16.8%	30.0%	44.2%	35.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	29.3%	19.1%	32.5%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	28.7%	10.6%	38.9%	96.7%	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	48.7%	21.9%	29.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	39.4%	27.3%	36.8%	27.3%	34.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	35.0%	28.8%	39.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	15.4%	22.2%	20.2%	40.0%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.6%	27.2%	21.3%	—	48.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	36.1%	22.6%	22.6%	54.7%	56.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	41.8%	40.2%	25.4%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3091
IFS HRES	16%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0253
National Blend	13%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0174
WeatherNext 2	12%	81.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	12%	83.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0135
IFS Ensemble	7%	82.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	6%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0031

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 78°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-LE78
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗