KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

70%

53%

42%

17%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

HRESNO 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.35u · HRES −56.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:07+00:00	84.5%	92.6%	87.7%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	84.5%	92.6%	87.7%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	84.5%	92.6%	87.7%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	84.5%	92.6%	87.7%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	84.5%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	84.5%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	84.5%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	84.5%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	85.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	82.7%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	44.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	54.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	54.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	54.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	83.2%	65.9%	54.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	83.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	88.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	88.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	83.2%	88.1%	88.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	80.3%	88.1%	88.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	80.3%	88.1%	88.2%	68.8%	54.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	74.0%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	74.0%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	74.0%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	65.8%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	65.8%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	76.0%	60.4%	65.8%	62.5%	86.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	61.0%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	65.8%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	68.9%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	68.9%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	60.2%	60.4%	68.9%	22.8%	46.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	68.9%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	68.9%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	68.9%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	68.9%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	68.9%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	22.8%	60.4%	70.4%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	22.8%	42.1%	70.4%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	22.8%	42.1%	70.4%	16.6%	52.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	70.7%	42.1%	70.4%	16.6%	52.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	70.7%	42.1%	70.4%	16.6%	52.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	85.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	83.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	82.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗