KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

70%

53%

42%

17%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.6¢Risks 43.65u

HRESNO 56.4¢Risks 56.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.35u · HRES −56.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	78.0%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	16.3%	54.0%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	26.9%	72.0%	17.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	78.0%	72.8%	22.1%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	20.5%	74.2%	22.8%	—	22.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	32.3%	54.8%	20.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	7.0%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	43.4%	44.2%	47.5%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	18.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	26.2%	39.6%	33.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.6%	21.5%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	13.4%	45.4%	31.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	14.3%	38.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	16.5%	32.1%	31.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	15.2%	36.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.8%	19.0%	7.4%	0.1%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	9.6%	25.3%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.6%	19.0%	8.5%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.0%	21.4%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.8%	15.3%	5.7%	0.1%	9.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.1%	10.8%	5.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.3%	8.9%	8.0%	3.3%	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	3.5%	10.3%	7.2%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	3.7%	12.7%	7.9%	3.2%	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	6.7%	16.4%	11.1%	—	6.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	12.2%	20.2%	16.3%	5.5%	6.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	17.2%	12.0%	—	2.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	71%	86.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	85.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	83.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	82.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	77.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗