KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 1.28u

EPSNO 94.9¢Risks 23.72u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.72u · EPS −23.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:07+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	66.0%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	66.0%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	66.0%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	61.9%	29.1%	66.0%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	61.9%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	61.9%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	61.9%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	61.9%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	59.5%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	59.1%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	29.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	38.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	38.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	38.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:11+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	56.4%	41.3%	38.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	56.4%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	59.8%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	55.7%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	38.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	58.2%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	58.2%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	58.2%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	58.2%	26.2%	64.9%	44.4%	70.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:36+00:00	58.2%	26.2%	64.9%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	58.2%	14.7%	41.4%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	58.2%	14.7%	41.4%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	58.2%	14.7%	41.4%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	47.7%	14.7%	41.4%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	48.5%	14.7%	41.5%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	41.5%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	41.5%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	41.5%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	32.6%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	32.6%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	48.5%	14.5%	32.6%	38.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	32.1%	14.5%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	32.1%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	32.1%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	32.1%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	32.6%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	35.8%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	35.8%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	31.5%	14.6%	35.8%	8.8%	25.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	35.8%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	35.8%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	35.8%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	35.8%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	35.8%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	6.1%	14.6%	33.1%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	6.1%	6.3%	33.1%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:13+00:00	6.1%	6.3%	33.1%	4.8%	26.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	39.7%	6.3%	33.1%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	39.7%	6.3%	33.1%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	33.1%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	33.1%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	37.6%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	37.6%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	37.6%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	39.7%	6.7%	37.6%	4.8%	27.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	37.6%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	37.6%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	37.6%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	37.6%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	6.8%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	31.3%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	12.5%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	36.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	6.1%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	6.1%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	6.1%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	6.1%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:55+00:00	6.1%	6.7%	24.8%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	21.0%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	21.0%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	6.1%	0.5%	21.0%	11.0%	14.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	8.5%	0.5%	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	8.4%	0.5%	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	21.0%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	8.4%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	14.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	7.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	7.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	7.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	29.5%	6.9%	7.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	29.5%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	7.5%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.8%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.0%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	21.0%	5.1%	7.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	6.2%	1.9%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	6.2%	1.9%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	6.2%	1.9%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	7.7%	1.9%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	7.7%	2.3%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	12.4%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	8.2%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	8.2%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	8.2%	5.1%	3.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	7.7%	2.0%	8.2%	5.1%	3.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	8%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	81.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	80.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	80.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	82.9°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗