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KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
8%
AIFS
8%
HRES
5%
ICON
3%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 1.28u
VS
EPSNO 94.9¢Risks 23.72u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.72u · EPS −23.72u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 51.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:005.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:002.5%————3.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:007.9%————31.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0021.6%————27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0046.3%————33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0050.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0038.5%————34.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0044.7%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0047.9%————27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0047.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0053.7%————27.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0019.7%————28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0012.5%————32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0028.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0024.1%————30.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0020.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0016.3%————35.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.4%—0.8%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0035.7%————34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—13.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0044.0%————35.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0032.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0027.0%—55.6%——34.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0031.5%—33.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0036.0%—16.0%——29.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0040.8%—37.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0034.8%4.8%28.2%——31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0032.0%—41.8%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0032.3%9.3%45.1%4.9%—30.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0028.3%—38.7%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.4%51.5%44.9%6.6%—17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0022.1%—33.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0010.7%5.6%45.4%6.5%—6.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:009.8%—32.6%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.2%10.4%24.8%5.1%—6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0014.8%1.1%34.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.0%15.7%16.2%18.4%—6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:002.2%3.9%19.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.9%6.5%12.7%9.4%—2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.3%3.9%4.5%——2.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.9%2.1%14.9%7.9%—3.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.9%2.2%10.8%——3.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.6%2.5%7.5%7.2%—2.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.7%2.1%8.8%——1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%1.3%2.8%0.7%0.0%1.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.9%4.2%——1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%2.4%0.7%—0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%2.7%0.0%—0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%1.4%0.3%0.0%0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.7%0.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.5%0.4%0.1%0.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.5%0.3%—0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.9%0.4%—0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.1%0.7%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.7%0.4%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 28%82.8°F3.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single8%81.4°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES5%80.2°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON3%80.2°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%82.9°F2.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend1%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Tampa runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗