KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

24%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.1¢Risks 23.05u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 76.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.95u · WN2 −76.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:17+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	3.0%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	21.0%	2.5%	3.0%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	3.0%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	3.0%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	3.0%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	21.0%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	16.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	27.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	1.6%	30.2%	27.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	1.6%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:17+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	22.9%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	2.8%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	3.0%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	3.0%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	20.3%	2.0%	3.0%	35.9%	27.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	21.3%	2.0%	3.0%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	21.3%	2.0%	3.0%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	21.3%	2.0%	3.0%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	21.3%	2.0%	3.0%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	21.3%	2.0%	3.0%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	18.1%	0.7%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	18.1%	0.9%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	3.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	5.8%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	5.8%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	5.8%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	18.1%	0.8%	5.8%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	20.0%	0.8%	5.8%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	20.0%	0.8%	5.8%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	20.0%	0.8%	5.8%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	20.0%	0.8%	5.8%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	20.0%	0.8%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	20.0%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	20.0%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	20.0%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	6.5%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	7.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	7.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	7.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:34+00:00	21.3%	0.7%	7.7%	28.8%	29.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:03+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	7.7%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	7.7%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	7.7%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	20.1%	0.7%	7.7%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	20.1%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	21.5%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	21.5%	1.5%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	7.8%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	9.3%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	9.3%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	21.5%	3.0%	9.3%	24.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	9.3%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	9.3%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	9.3%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	9.3%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	9.3%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:34+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	7.8%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	6.5%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	6.5%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	18.8%	3.0%	6.5%	22.5%	50.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:55+00:00	13.8%	3.0%	6.5%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	13.8%	3.0%	6.5%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	13.8%	3.0%	6.5%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	13.8%	3.0%	6.5%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	13.8%	3.0%	6.5%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:45+00:00	13.8%	2.8%	4.6%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00	13.8%	2.8%	4.6%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	13.8%	2.8%	4.6%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	13.8%	2.8%	4.6%	19.4%	68.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	13.7%	2.8%	4.6%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:24+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.6%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.6%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.6%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.3%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.3%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	13.7%	3.0%	4.3%	19.4%	67.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:51+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:11+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	12.1%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	4.3%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	8.5%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	55.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	3.9%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	43.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	3.9%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	43.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	3.9%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	43.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	3.9%	3.0%	2.9%	24.2%	43.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	43%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗