KTPA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≤ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

24%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.1¢Risks 23.05u

WN2NO 77.0¢Risks 76.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.95u · WN2 −76.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	4.3%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	48.6%	13.2%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	33.0%	5.1%	45.8%	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	3.1%	4.4%	37.1%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	37.2%	3.6%	34.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	23.0%	9.3%	35.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	59.7%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	13.8%	13.4%	11.6%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	35.0%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	24.8%	14.6%	19.0%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	31.0%	28.7%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	39.1%	10.2%	18.4%	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	36.1%	12.7%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	31.3%	15.9%	16.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	31.7%	12.4%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	35.9%	25.1%	45.9%	92.9%	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	38.5%	17.6%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	47.8%	22.1%	39.2%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	52.2%	18.3%	100.0%	—	37.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	46.5%	23.3%	43.0%	90.6%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.8%	28.3%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	55.0%	29.8%	32.0%	48.8%	30.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	44.9%	24.8%	31.4%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	40.7%	19.1%	27.3%	43.3%	31.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	27.6%	13.2%	19.1%	—	27.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	15.4%	8.9%	11.5%	28.0%	25.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	9.2%	13.6%	—	36.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	43%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	82.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	83.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261020-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Tampa stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗