KTPA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

15%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.4¢Risks 4.70u

EPSNO 90.6¢Risks 45.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.30u · EPS −45.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:37+00:00	36.8%	5.5%	52.2%	20.2%	24.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:46+00:00	36.8%	5.0%	25.4%	20.2%	24.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	36.8%	5.0%	25.4%	20.2%	24.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	36.8%	5.0%	25.4%	20.2%	24.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	25.4%	20.2%	24.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	25.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	25.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	25.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	25.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	27.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	27.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	24.9%	5.0%	27.5%	20.2%	24.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	27.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	27.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	27.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	27.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	27.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	14.7%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	23.0%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	29.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	29.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	17.3%	5.0%	29.5%	6.5%	32.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	29.5%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	29.5%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	29.5%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	29.5%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	29.5%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00	7.9%	5.0%	24.7%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.7%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.7%	6.2%	26.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.7%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.7%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.7%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.7%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	24.0%	0.4%	24.0%	6.3%	26.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.0%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.0%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.0%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	24.0%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	7.9%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	6.4%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	32.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	15.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	15.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	15.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	15.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	6.0%	0.4%	18.4%	9.6%	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	18%	85.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	15%	83.3°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	81.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	83.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tampa · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗