KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

88%

69%

50%

44%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.50u · HRES −32.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	76.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	44.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	83.2%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	87.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	6.4%	70.6%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	68.9%	63.8%	45.8%	—	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	65.0%	54.4%	65.7%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	58.3%	71.7%	62.0%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	73.9%	49.2%	58.7%	—	48.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	3.0%	61.3%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	69.2%	54.2%	55.8%	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	40.7%	56.8%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	52.6%	66.2%	63.7%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	54.5%	63.2%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	54.6%	68.6%	51.8%	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	58.5%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	51.9%	61.5%	49.0%	—	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	39.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.8%	62.2%	43.9%	—	35.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	41.6%	62.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	42.4%	62.9%	55.5%	34.1%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	56.7%	0.1%	—	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	82.4°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	81.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	79.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	78.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗