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KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
WN2
83%
AIFS
37%
HRES
24%
ICON
23%
Consensus
63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u
VS
ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:26+00:0037.4%84.1%82.8%24.4%22.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:0037.4%84.1%82.8%24.4%22.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:0037.4%84.1%82.8%24.4%22.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:0037.4%84.1%82.8%24.4%22.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:0037.4%84.1%82.8%24.4%22.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%84.9°F2.4°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 283%87.6°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
National Blend56%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single37%80.7°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES24%78.1°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON23%75.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗