KTPA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

37%

24%

23%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.4¢Risks 53.45u

ICONNO 46.6¢Risks 46.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.55u · ICON −46.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	74.8%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	2.1%	51.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	72.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	48.6%	43.0%	26.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	43.4%	33.0%	44.2%	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	35.8%	50.0%	39.4%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	51.6%	26.8%	35.2%	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	37.2%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	45.0%	30.0%	31.5%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	19.0%	31.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	27.7%	40.5%	37.9%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	28.7%	36.8%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	28.2%	41.8%	25.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	30.9%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	24.7%	33.0%	22.5%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	15.2%	32.6%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	17.0%	32.1%	17.6%	—	12.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	15.6%	31.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	15.5%	31.1%	24.7%	10.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	24.9%	0.0%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	87.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	80.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	78.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	75.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗