KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

78%

78%

67%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.05u · ICON −19.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	74.1%	97.2%	88.5%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	74.1%	94.6%	88.5%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:53+00:00	74.1%	94.6%	88.5%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	74.1%	94.6%	83.2%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	74.1%	94.6%	83.2%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	74.1%	94.6%	83.2%	64.2%	63.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.2%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.2%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.2%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.2%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.2%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:50+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	75.3%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	78.1%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	78.1%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	78.1%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	78.1%	94.6%	83.8%	78.0%	67.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	84.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	83.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	84.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	82.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗