KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

78%

78%

67%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

ICONNO 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +19.05u · ICON −19.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	79.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	69.9%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	10.2%	77.2%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.8%	81.6%	32.3%	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	40.6%	69.0%	64.3%	—	60.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	46.2%	65.6%	72.4%	—	69.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	49.2%	67.7%	57.1%	—	62.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	4.3%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	40.1%	74.9%	75.5%	—	61.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	54.3%	82.7%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	50.9%	77.9%	76.6%	80.4%	62.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	81.0%	—	—	57.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	84.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	83.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	84.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	82.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗