KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

73%

71%

43%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.2¢Risks 66.20u

HRESNO 33.8¢Risks 33.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.80u · HRES −33.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:12+00:00	71.1%	90.6%	86.1%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	71.1%	90.6%	86.1%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	71.1%	90.6%	86.1%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	71.1%	90.6%	86.1%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	71.1%	90.6%	86.1%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	71.1%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	71.1%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	71.1%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	34.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	88.4%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	86.3%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	86.3%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	86.3%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	72.9%	89.8%	86.3%	51.9%	35.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	86.3%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	86.3%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	86.3%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	86.3%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	69.3%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	73.4%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	73.4%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	73.4%	89.8%	82.1%	42.6%	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	83.3°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	85.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	84.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	85.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	79.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗