KTPA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tampa, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

82%

73%

71%

43%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.2¢Risks 66.20u

HRESNO 33.8¢Risks 33.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.80u · HRES −33.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	64.0%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	7.5%	71.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	54.9%	76.5%	26.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	33.7%	62.3%	57.3%	—	52.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	38.7%	58.3%	65.6%	—	62.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	41.3%	60.3%	49.2%	—	54.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	2.7%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	32.2%	67.8%	68.5%	—	53.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	45.7%	76.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.2%	70.9%	69.3%	73.8%	54.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	74.3%	—	—	48.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	83.3°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	85.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	84.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	71%	85.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	79.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KTPA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTPA-20261024-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Tampa high ≥ 81°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗